Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories

This study develops a modelling framework for simulating the spread of infectious diseases within real cities. Digital copies Birmingham (UK) and Bogotá (Colombia) are generated, reproducing their urban environment, infrastructure population. The digital inhabitants have same statistical features Their motion is combination predictable trips (commute to work, school, etc.) random walks (shopping, leisure, etc.). Millions individuals, encounters disease simulated by means high-performance computing massively parallel algorithms several months time resolution 1 minute. Simulations accurately reproduce COVID-19 data both before during lockdown. model has only one adjustable parameter calculable in early stages pandemic. Policymakers can use our cities as virtual laboratories testing, predicting comparing effects policies aimed at containing epidemics.